Predicting The Big Game

The Big Game is Sunday, plotting the Philadelphia Eagles and the Kansas City Chiefs in New Orleans.

Kansas City is looking for the three peat.  Philadelphia seeking their first time since 2018 when they knocked off the then dynasty of the New England Patriots.  

So it's not the first time Philadelphia is seen as the team hoping to knock off the previous champs, but they have history with the Chiefs.  

Two years ago, these two teams met in Arizona where Kansas City won their second championship in four years, winning 38-35.

But this is a much better Philadelphia team.  All because of one addition, that makes New York sports fans unhappy.

Saquon Barkley.

The addition of the versatile running back has changed the dynamics of this offense, allowing the Eagles to do more with their talent.  Less pressure on Jalen Hurts, because now they can hand the ball off to Barkley and let him work his magic.  A.J. Brown has been the top receiver in 10 of the Eagles 17 regular season weeks, as well as the top receiver in the NFC Championship against Washington.

There's one other thing Philadelphia has over Kansas City ... more people want Philadelphia to knock off the Chiefs than to watch the Chiefs achieve NFL history through back-to-back-to-back championships.

But there's something to be said about the Kansas City Chiefs.  They lost one game this season where they were fully trying, and they beat that team in the postseason when it mattered more.  They won games in miracle ways - like Week 1 against Baltimore when a toe was the difference between a Ravens go-ahead touchdown and the Chiefs winning the game.   Blocked field goals and other miraculous methods of winning have been the M.O. of the Chiefs.

Yes, people will credit the refs for the Chiefs winning some of their games, with even their AFC Championship being dissected by many for getting beneficial calls.  But that's not the reason why the Chiefs are successful -- a big piece is Steve Spagnola keeping the Chiefs in range of getting these close victories through his defense.  An underdiscussed part of their success story this year is how well Spagnola's defensive schemes work against other teams.

The addition of Xavier Worthy, thanks to trading with the Buffalo Bills in last year's draft to move up, has helped their receiving corps.   Which has while it has lowered the productivity of Travis Kelce, that lack of productivity didn't hurt the Chiefs.  De'Andre Hopkins also helps the Chiefs be better.  Kareem Hunt in the backfield gives the Chiefs options to balance their playbook.

PREDICTION: The game will be close and tight, with both coaches unleashing everything they have been working on in their playbooks over the past season.  Patrick Mahomes will have a stellar game, and Kareem Hunt will move the ball well.  Same with Jaylen Hurts and Saquon Barkley.  But I think the ability of Barkley to move the ball with style will show better.

Kansas City has had some tough turnovers of late, including two Patrick Mahomes fumbles in the same drive during the AFC Championship, though one was negated by an offsides penalty against Buffalo.   If Philadelphia can capitalize on those opportunities, this could be a good night for the City of Brotherly Shove... err, Love.

Defense wins championships, and I think that's what will move the needle in the big game.

PHILADELPHIA wins 36-30.

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